Math Vs. Gut in World Series Prediction (Yes, It's Boston...)

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If you look at the prediction, based on season numbers, the Red Sox have an overwhelming advantage, based on runs scored, runs against and Log5. I know what many people are saying: how can the Rockies have such a low chance? Well, a season is not the last 22 games of regular season and playoffs. When someone is making a business decision, will they choose the business that has performed the best for the longest, or do they choose the team that has performed the best only for the last month? Not too many decision-makers take the temporarily hot pick, they take the reliable pick.

And that's what the numbers say: Boston is the reliable pick, and quite handily. Colorado doesn't have much of a chance, although you might like their make-up and the fact that they've managed an amazing feat to reach the playoffs and then sweep so far in the playoffs. But Math says that if the Red Sox and Rockies played 100 series, the Red Sox would win almost 70% of the time. Red Sox should win their second World Series in 4 years.

Unless you believe in Colbert logic: math is only as accurate as the gut that produces it...

(Cross-posted in Big Shoulders Sports)