Math Vs. Gut in World Series Prediction (Yes, It's Boston...)

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If you look at the prediction, based on season numbers, the Red Sox have an overwhelming advantage, based on runs scored, runs against and Log5. I know what many people are saying: how can the Rockies have such a low chance? Well, a season is not the last 22 games of regular season and playoffs. When someone is making a business decision, will they choose the business that has performed the best for the longest, or do they choose the team that has performed the best only for the last month? Not too many decision-makers take the temporarily hot pick, they take the reliable pick.

And that's what the numbers say: Boston is the reliable pick, and quite handily. Colorado doesn't have much of a chance, although you might like their make-up and the fact that they've managed an amazing feat to reach the playoffs and then sweep so far in the playoffs. But Math says that if the Red Sox and Rockies played 100 series, the Red Sox would win almost 70% of the time. Red Sox should win their second World Series in 4 years.

Unless you believe in Colbert logic: math is only as accurate as the gut that produces it...

(Cross-posted in Big Shoulders Sports)

A Rocky Mountain High and a Boston Tea Party

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I guess $200,000,000 plus payrolls just don't go as far as they used to anymore.

The probable winners in the LCS's will be the Rockies and the Red Sox. Of course, that's not to say that they will win. As I often find myself explaining to people that the statistics show the most probable world, not the way the world will be. That's also why I don't take this information and bet on it. It's entirely possible that the Cleveland Indians can stun Boston (37% chance is pretty high). But it is unlikely. It should be a good series, though, that's for sure.

And in the NL, the ratings bonanza that is two teams formed in the Nineties in the baseball mecca of this country, the D-backs certainly could overcome an incredible home field advantage that is Rockies Stadium, but it's unlikely.

On a side note, as to method: I'm still on board with log5, and the same with pythagorean, but I'm thinking the better way to slice and dice the runs is perhaps not just home and away runs/runs against, but to look at it only against teams that are better than .500. Too often in a short series, which is a crapshoot anyway, the real way to examine teams is to look at how well they performed against their real competition, rather than against the dregs of their own division. If I had the stats to do that, I would use that method instead. For instance, the Cubs totally fattened their pythagorean record on their bad division, whereas the Arizona record didn't get properly weighted for playing against basically a whole division of playoff contenders (minus San Francisco--and even they weren't pushovers!). We'll see what we can do next year...

(Editor's Note: I changed the image for two reasons from the original post: 1. there was an error in the formula for the home series in both LCSs; 2. I added the current, as of Oct. 13, changes in the odds based on the games played.)

So Sad About Us...

As The Who sang so many years ago, it fits Cubs' fans today. Even when the odds seem to favor them, the "odd" seems to take hold, and off goes another season ending to the sad refrain of "wait 'til next year..."

The Phillies Phans as well, are sad, and most likely will those of LA and NY. It's possible that all teams might sweep today--now that's a weird one (chance: 3%).

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I will post LCS odds after all contenders are in.

Bronx Bombers Become Bug Bombers, Boston Brilliant

Sorry--I love alliteration.

In any case, the Yankees now have less of a chance to beat Cleveland than the Cubs do of beating the Snakes, even though they both play the next two (if there are two) at home.

A note while I watch the Red Sox play the Angels: Steve Stone is the best analyst in the game. I remember back in Chicago, and listening to him carry Harry Caray during all those years--when Caray was cute, but inarticulate. I've played baseball, as a semi-professional, and thought I was pretty knowledgeable about the game. But in almost every single game, Stone would point something out that I either didn't know, had forgotten, or didn't think of--it was educationsl and entertaining because he was a very intelligent and articulate announcer. It made me completely forget about the great Brickhouse/Boudreau years as I was growing up (and, boy, were those guys good!). Listening to him announce these games was as good as it gets--it truly puts those Faux (Fox?) announcers to shame, they sometimes seem that the more words that issue from their mouths, the more it shows how little they know about the game (thanks TM for that one).

In any case, the question to be asked is what is more accurate now? The odds from before the two losses for these teams, or the odds as they stand after them? Here are the chances for these teams to sweep the next 3 games:
Cubs, 18.4%
Yankees, 17.6%
Phillies, 10.2%
Angels, 8.6%

Now you might think: "them's not good odds"--and you'd be right. But of course, that's the same chance that the Rockies and Phillies had of winning their playoff spots a week ago...

Also, you might also be asking what are the odds that all four series would be 2-0? Of course I have the number for you: 2.9% or less than 3 out of 100 (I aim to please).

Here's the updated odds after tonight's games.

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Cubs Snakebit, Phillies Phoiled and Yankees? Yikes!

Looks like the Cubs are going to have to put it all together in the last 3 games of this series, they don't look at all like the team that that overcame adversity and battled all year. Soriano, in particular, looks like the second coming of a young Shawon Dunston, haplessly flailing away at curves out of the strike zone. The Phillies look like a total fluke now that had no business making the post-season.

The Yankees have only one problem, pitching. Their hitting has been so good that it masked their pitching during the season, but it looks like it might be exposed in the playoffs. I still stand by my stats, but all of these teams have seen their probability of reaching the LCS drop to 10-20%. But do keep in mind that probabilities are subtractive as well as additive, so a win by any of these underdogs (now) will reset the probabilities again.

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The Odds Have Changed, Even for the Cubs

Two of the favorites tonight have held serve, but the Cubs did not. Even though the odds overall were in the Cubs' favor, most knowledgeable knew that beating Brandon Webb at home was a tall order. Although the Cubs odds of winning have gone down with this loss, I still think that they'll probably win the next two of three games, as originally predicted.

Boston and Colorado now have commanding odds of winning their series, while we wait for the Yankees to do their bit tomorrow.

Click the image to enlarge it. A win for the first game of each series received a 1, and losing a 0 (for the chances of winning, which are now definite).

Maybe for the Next Four Weeks I Call This Illumi-Baseballrati...

This will be a cross-post with Big Shoulders Sports.

Two years ago on Big Shoulders Sports, I blogged about the postseason chances of the White Sox. Re-reading prior to this post surprises me that I was so accurate (I predicted a Sox victory)--perhaps I need to call a bookie!

In any case, my method is to use a combination of Bill James' Pythagorean Theorem and his Log5 Theorem for one-game win probability. My little wrinkle is using home/away numbers instead of totals, and then to total up all the probabilities adding up to 3 wins (win-win-win, win-loss-win-win, win-loss-loss-win-win, etc.). Because probabilities are additive, the chances of any scenario can just be added up (where the total equals 100%).

So what do the numbers show?


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The Yankees hold an advantage over Cleveland, Boston looks very tough to beat by the Angels in the AL. In the NL, the Cubs should win the first playoff series over the Diamondbacks, and the Rockies have a slight edge over the Phillies.

Now, I know what you're saying: how can your numbers show the Cubs having such an advantage over the team with the best record in the league? It's simple, the D-backs have a below-.500 pythagorean record, which is almost unheard of in the playoffs. The Cubs have a decent home-field advantage and are far better on the road--this will translate into an NLDS victory for the North Siders.

As the games are played, I will update this table and post it here (and on Big Shoulders), since the odds will change with each victory and loss.

A Quick One About My Baseball Blog Posts...

As you may have seen in one of my earlier posts, I also do a Stats-type Baseball Posting on an Ex-Pat Chicago Sports Web site.

It's always nice to be appreciated, as my Season Predictions proved highly accurate, my fellow blogger posted about that.

I love Bill James' Sabermetric work, and I used his Win-Shares formula to see how the off-season would add up for the Cubs. Turns out I was only off by one game (I predicted the Cubs would win only 84 or 85 games).

My mid-season prediction was eerily similar to my pre-season prediction, and the eventual outcome. I should say that the Pythagorean Theorem was particularly accurate, because I didn't devise this, Bill James did, with only a little programmatic application that I did which was to include the season as it unfolds and the dwindling number of opportunities, along with the OPI (over-performance index). This prediction also made my Yankees-loving friends extremely happy. Most interesting in this prediction was the fact that I had the Cubs winning the division even though their performance at that time had resulted in an under-.500 record and Milwaukee was winning at a high clip.

I will be cross-posting my play-off predictions here and on Big Shoulders Sports.