Thursday, October 4, 2007

Cubs Snakebit, Phillies Phoiled and Yankees? Yikes!

Looks like the Cubs are going to have to put it all together in the last 3 games of this series, they don't look at all like the team that that overcame adversity and battled all year. Soriano, in particular, looks like the second coming of a young Shawon Dunston, haplessly flailing away at curves out of the strike zone. The Phillies look like a total fluke now that had no business making the post-season.

The Yankees have only one problem, pitching. Their hitting has been so good that it masked their pitching during the season, but it looks like it might be exposed in the playoffs. I still stand by my stats, but all of these teams have seen their probability of reaching the LCS drop to 10-20%. But do keep in mind that probabilities are subtractive as well as additive, so a win by any of these underdogs (now) will reset the probabilities again.

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