Math Vs. Gut in World Series Prediction (Yes, It's Boston...)

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If you look at the prediction, based on season numbers, the Red Sox have an overwhelming advantage, based on runs scored, runs against and Log5. I know what many people are saying: how can the Rockies have such a low chance? Well, a season is not the last 22 games of regular season and playoffs. When someone is making a business decision, will they choose the business that has performed the best for the longest, or do they choose the team that has performed the best only for the last month? Not too many decision-makers take the temporarily hot pick, they take the reliable pick.

And that's what the numbers say: Boston is the reliable pick, and quite handily. Colorado doesn't have much of a chance, although you might like their make-up and the fact that they've managed an amazing feat to reach the playoffs and then sweep so far in the playoffs. But Math says that if the Red Sox and Rockies played 100 series, the Red Sox would win almost 70% of the time. Red Sox should win their second World Series in 4 years.

Unless you believe in Colbert logic: math is only as accurate as the gut that produces it...

(Cross-posted in Big Shoulders Sports)

Maybe for the Next Four Weeks I Call This Illumi-Baseballrati...

This will be a cross-post with Big Shoulders Sports.

Two years ago on Big Shoulders Sports, I blogged about the postseason chances of the White Sox. Re-reading prior to this post surprises me that I was so accurate (I predicted a Sox victory)--perhaps I need to call a bookie!

In any case, my method is to use a combination of Bill James' Pythagorean Theorem and his Log5 Theorem for one-game win probability. My little wrinkle is using home/away numbers instead of totals, and then to total up all the probabilities adding up to 3 wins (win-win-win, win-loss-win-win, win-loss-loss-win-win, etc.). Because probabilities are additive, the chances of any scenario can just be added up (where the total equals 100%).

So what do the numbers show?


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The Yankees hold an advantage over Cleveland, Boston looks very tough to beat by the Angels in the AL. In the NL, the Cubs should win the first playoff series over the Diamondbacks, and the Rockies have a slight edge over the Phillies.

Now, I know what you're saying: how can your numbers show the Cubs having such an advantage over the team with the best record in the league? It's simple, the D-backs have a below-.500 pythagorean record, which is almost unheard of in the playoffs. The Cubs have a decent home-field advantage and are far better on the road--this will translate into an NLDS victory for the North Siders.

As the games are played, I will update this table and post it here (and on Big Shoulders), since the odds will change with each victory and loss.